What the State of the Nation address reported, and what the official figures add

President Duma Boko’s address on 9 November 2026 reported a rebound in the economy and a rise in foreign exchange reserves. We checked what he said against the figures Statistics Botswana and the Bank of Botswana publish, and against the promises he made.

This is a preliminary reading. It rests on the Office of the President’s written text of the address. The detailed report the President said would follow had not been released when we checked on 10 November, and some official figures are still to be published. We will revise this article when they are, and every change is dated in the revision log at the end.

Three things to know

1. The rebound is a diamond rebound. The economy grew 8.7% in the second quarter, but without mining it shrank 0.2% and households spent 7.3% less.
2. Unemployment is higher than ten years ago. The address spoke of job programmes rather than the rate. The latest official survey puts it at 21.0%, and at 28.9% for people aged 15 to 35.
3. The biggest decision has no published price yet. The President said the state’s stake in De Beers will double to 30%. The cost, the funding and the effect on the deficit and debt were not part of the announcement.

The second-quarter rebound came from diamonds

Source: Statistics Botswana, GDP Second Quarter 2026, September 2026.

The President said the contraction narrowed from 2.8% in 2024 to 0.7% in 2025, helped by better diamond conditions. The second-quarter figures were not part of the address.

Statistics Botswana attributes the fall in farming (down 23%) and in manufacturing (down 9.2%) largely to foot-and-mouth disease and its effect on cattle and meat processing. The President put the response at P97 million.

Inflation is falling but still above the Bank’s range

Inflation was 7.8% in September, down from 9.3% in August, against the Bank of Botswana’s objective range of 3% to 6%. The policy rate is 5.5%.

The address spoke of the cost of living rather than the inflation rate. The President said the fuel, road and security of supply levies were suspended for six months, at a cost of about P700 million.

The Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority said on 8 October that the suspension had expired. It said reinstating the levies does not by itself raise pump prices, and that government will use the same levies to strengthen the National Petroleum Fund.

Sources: Statistics Botswana, Consumer Price Index September 2026, 15 October 2026; Bank of Botswana, October 2026; Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority, press release, 8 October 2026.

Reserves rose over the year

The President said reserves rose 32.2% to P63.2 billion in July 2026, or 8.3 months of imports, from 6.3 months a year earlier.

The Bank of Botswana’s statistics workbook confirms the pula figures: P63,214 million in July 2026 against P47,815 million in July 2025, a rise of 32.2%. In US dollars the rise is 25.9%, to US$4,444 million. We have not matched the 8.3 months of import cover to a Bank series; the Bank’s Foreign Reserves page states 7.5 months at the end of June 2026.

The same page shows P59.9 billion at the end of August. Reserves change from month to month, so the figures are for different dates. We will update this section when the Bank publishes its next figures.

Over a longer span the level is lower. At the end of 2015 reserves stood at P84.9 billion (US$7.5 billion), so the July 2026 level of P63.2 billion is 25.5% lower in pula and 41.1% lower in US dollars.

Prices have also risen. The consumer price index went from 90.9 in December 2015 to 148.8 in July 2026 (December 2018 = 100). In December 2015 prices, the July 2026 reserves are worth about P38.6 billion, which is 54.5% below the end-2015 level. Using the 2015/16 financial-year average index of 90.68 instead gives P38.5 billion, a 54.6% fall.

Reserves mostly pay for imports, so consumer prices are only a rough guide to what they can buy. The Bank’s table gives year-end levels for 2015, so the comparison is December 2015 with July 2026, not the end of the 2015/16 financial year in March 2016.

Sources: Bank of Botswana, Economic and Financial Statistics, September 2026 (Table 6.7); Bank of Botswana, Botswana Financial Statistics, December 2020 (Table 6.7, year-end 2015); Bank of Botswana, Foreign Reserves page; Statistics Botswana consumer price index, December 2017 release rescaled to a December 2018 base, and Bank of Botswana, Economic and Financial Statistics, September 2026 (Table 2.5, July 2026).

The goods trade gap widened in August

Source: Statistics Botswana, International Merchandise Trade Statistics, August 2026.

The trade deficit was not among the topics the address covered.

It said electricity imports fell 62%, and announced ties with six new countries and a wider diplomatic presence in Russia, Turkey, the UAE and Oman, with no dates.

Unemployment is higher than a decade ago

Source: Statistics Botswana, Labour Force Preliminary Stats Brief, March 2026 (preliminary).

The President described three programmes:

• Bringing outsourced public service work back in-house: about 9,380 jobs projected, with 4,366 temporary staff already made permanent.
• Ikageng public works, which he said has engaged nearly 27,600 young people.
• 804 graduate internships.

The address did not set these against the governing party’s target of 100,000 jobs.

Statistics Botswana’s quarterly survey stops at the first quarter of 2024 (27.6%). It uses a different method, so the two should not be compared as a fall.

The larger De Beers stake has no published price yet

The President said a consortium is the preferred bidder for Anglo American’s 85% of De Beers. When the deal completes, he said, the state’s stake rises from 15% to 30%, making Botswana the largest single shareholder, with Angola and Namibia taking part.

He set out five principles, including limiting the call on the public purse. The price, the funding source and the effect on the deficit or debt were not part of the announcement. Bloomberg reported the same on 9 November.

Botswana and France signed a declaration on natural diamonds the day after the address

On 10 November, Botswana’s Minister of Minerals and Energy, Bogolo Joy Kenewendo, and France’s minister delegate for foreign trade, Nicolas Forissier, signed the Paris Declaration at the Peace Forum, WWD reported.

The declaration recognises the contribution of natural diamonds to producer economies and calls for responsible, transparent sourcing, worker protections and clear terminology, with “diamond” meaning a natural diamond. The two countries intend to set up a joint working group with private-sector representatives and to publish annual progress reports from 2027.

The President previewed it in the address as delivered. He said Botswana has argued that synthetic stones must not be called diamonds, and that its minister would sign an agreement in Paris with France, which had come on board. The written text does not mention it.

Sources: WWD, “Botswana and France Ink Declaration to Champion Natural Diamonds”, 10 November 2026; transcript of the address as delivered, 9 November 2026.

Public debt is projected to reach 44.7% of GDP by March 2027

Deficit and debt figures were not part of the address. The February budget speech put public debt at P90.03 billion, or 33.0% of GDP, in December 2025.

It projected 38.8% by March 2026 and 44.7% by March 2027. The speech measured these against a statutory ceiling of 40% and said the ceiling would need to be raised. The Stock, Bonds and Treasury Bills (Amendment) Bill, 2026, published in the Gazette on 30 January 2026, raises the limit to 60% of GDP, and press reports say Parliament enacted it in April. We have not seen the Act or the order that brings it into force, so we do not treat the new ceiling as confirmed.

The February speech forecast a deficit of 8.9% of GDP for 2026/27. On 22 September the Finance Minister said the forecast had fallen to 3.1%, mainly because the Bank of Botswana is transferring P8.1 billion more to government than planned.

The President said Moody’s moved Botswana’s outlook from negative to stable and cut the long-term rating one notch, from Baa1 to Baa2, and that Botswana remains one of two investment-grade sovereigns in Africa.

Sources: Republic of Botswana, 2026 Budget Speech, February 2026; Reuters, 22 September 2026.

Only 2 of the address’s 11 forward commitments had a figure, a date and an owner

Of the other six, five carry one or two of the three and one carries none. We counted the Special Economic Zone Authority and the Education Infrastructure and Management Company as owners because the address names them in the same passage; a stricter reading would lower the count.

Two of the eleven restate earlier promises: the student allowance and the National Health Insurance Bill.

One more commitment, a plant in Gabane to employ 1,200 people from February 2027, was said only in delivery, so it is not counted here.

The address also looks back at ten earlier promises. It does not include a tally, so the grouping below is ours, and we have not checked the claims.

Reported as done (3)

• The President said the Serowe Rehabilitation Centre has opened and offers outpatient services in its first phase.
• On industrial hemp, he said the promise “has been fulfilled” through the Cannabis Act, 2025 and the Cannabis Regulations, 2026.
• He said the national forensic audit is complete.

Reported as under way (6)

• Dairy cows: 600 of the 1,000 promised imported (60%).
• Military pension claims: 5,277 of 8,951 paid by 30 October (59%).
• Creative arts content fund: P39 million approved of the first P200 million (about 20%).
• National Health Insurance: policy approved by Parliament in August, Bill still to be written.
• Botswana Mercantile Exchange: soft-launched in March, trading red sorghum only.
• Constitutional reform: Bill passed, referendum still required.

Reported as not yet delivered (1)

• On the student allowance, he said it is now P2,200 and that Government aims to deliver on its promise of P2,500.

Five questions that will show whether the address becomes results

• Where will growth come from once diamond volumes settle?
• Will unemployment fall when the next labour force results arrive?
• How will the De Beers stake be paid for, and will the price be published before the deal completes?
• Is the debt ceiling now 60%? The Bill was reported enacted in April, and the order bringing it into force has not been published.
• Will the dated promises be kept, starting with the factory shells and school maintenance in 2027?

These are questions, not forecasts. We will check the promises again in May 2027.

How we read the address

Before the speech we set eight areas to read it against, with the same published measures under each, and listed 31 things a listener should hear named. The address named 11 of the 31. Whether an item counts as named is our judgment; the closest call is the student allowance, which the President reported below its promise, and without it the count is 10.

A commitment counts as specific only if it has a figure, a date and a named owner. Figures that are not the President’s own come from Statistics Botswana, the Bank of Botswana, the Ministry of Finance or Reuters, and each is dated beside it. The detailed report the President promised has not been published.

We will read the next budget speech the same way.

Sources: Office of the President, written text of the State of the Nation address, 9 November 2026; Statistics Botswana (GDP Second Quarter 2026; Consumer Price Index September 2026; International Merchandise Trade Statistics August 2026; Labour Force Preliminary Stats Brief, March 2026); Bank of Botswana; Republic of Botswana 2026 Budget Speech; Reuters, 22 September 2026; Bloomberg, 9 November 2026.

Revision log

• Version 1.8, 11 November 2026. The title is restored to the original: “What the State of the Nation address reported, and what the official figures add”. The address of the page is unchanged. The summary line is now a neutral description of the analysis.
• Version 1.7, 11 November 2026. The reserves section now compares the July 2026 level with the end of 2015, in pula, in US dollars and in December 2015 prices.
• Version 1.6, 11 November 2026. A section on the Paris Declaration with France on natural diamonds, signed on 10 November, with the President’s preview in the address as delivered.
• Version 1.5, 11 November 2026. The cover photo is now the President at the address. The debt section now cites the Gazette notice of the Bill that raises the ceiling to 60%, reported enacted in April, with its commencement unconfirmed.
• Version 1.4, 11 November 2026. The reserves section now cites the Bank of Botswana’s statistics workbook, which confirms the July 2026 and July 2025 figures behind the President’s 32.2%.
• Version 1.3, 11 November 2026. The source is now named as the Office of the President’s written text, which we compared sentence by sentence with the Office’s release. Nothing in the text differs.
• Version 1.2, 10 November 2026. The levy sentence in the inflation section now uses the President’s past tense and adds the energy regulator’s 8 October notice that the suspension had expired.
• Version 1.1, 10 November 2026. The August trade deficit is now compared with July’s.
• Version 1, 10 November 2026. First reading, from the Office of the President’s written text of the address.

When a source publishes new figures, or the President’s detailed report is released, we will revise this article, date the change here and say what moved.